Neil Howe's book The Fourth Turning is Here is proving to be a thought provoking read. Here are exerpts from the Preface and Chapter 1 with my thoughts in Blockquote:
Preface
This book proposes that America is midway through an era of historical crisis, which- almost by definition-will lead to outcomes that are largely though not entirely beyond our control. The prospect of such radical uncertainty may fill us with dread.
All too often in the modern West we fear that any outcome not subject to our complete control must mean we are heading toward catastrophe.
Over the course of this book, I hope to persuade you of a more ancient yet also more optimistic doctrine: that our collective social life, as with so many rhythmic systems in nature, requires seasons of sudden change and radical uncertainty in order for us to thrive over time. Or, to paraphrase Blaise Pascal: History has reasons that reason knows nothing of.
…
Marcel Proust wrote that "what we call our future is the shadow that our past projects in front of us.”
…
It's easy to understand that our future must somehow be determined by our past. What's harder to understand is exactly how. The secret is to get out of the "shadow"-to escape the slavish habits and delusive hopes of "what we call our future" and to recognize deeper patterns at work.
At first glance, these deeper patterns may strike us as grim and un-forgiving. Yet once we take time to reflect on them, we may come to a different conclusion: that they are corrective and restorative. They may even save us from our own best intentions.
Chapter 1
Very soon, something will trigger this makeover to exit its destructive phase and enter its constructive phase. What will this trigger be? Almost any new emergency could suffice. And almost any will soon be forth-coming....
Yet even from today's vantage point, it is possible to foresee the approximate direction of our trajectory.
[Alan's thoughts: chaos theory and predictability. In crisis predictability is more accurate in the long term that the short term.
Einstein “I don’t know what weapons WWIII will be fought with, but WWIV will be fought with sticks and stones.”][Alan's thoughts: “Creative destruction” is one way to think about healthy chaos]
- The First Turning is a High, an upbeat era of strengthening institutions and weakening individualism, when a new civic order implants and an old values regime decays.
- The Second Turning is an Awakening, a passionate era of spiritual upheaval, when the civic order comes under attack from a new values regime.
- The Third Turning is an Unraveling, a downcast era of strengthening individualism and weakening institutions, when the old civic order decays and the new values regime implants.
- The Fourth Turning is a Crisis, a decisive era of secular upheaval, when the values regime propels the replacement of the old civic order with a new one.
————-
- A Prophet generation (example: Boomers, born 1943-60) grows up as increasingly indulged post-Crisis children, comes of age as defiant young crusaders during an Awakening, cultivates principle as moralistic midlifers, and ages into the detached, visionary elders presiding over the next Crisis.
- A Nomad generation (example: Gen X, born 1961-81) grows up as underprotected children during an Awakening, comes of age as the alienated young adults of a post-Awakening world, mellows into pragmatic midlife leaders during a Crisis, and ages into tough post-Crisis elders.
- A Hero generation (example: G.I.s, born 1901-24, or Millennials, born 1982-2005?) grows up as increasingly protected post-Awakening children, comes of age as team-working young achievers during a Crisis, demonstrates hubris as confident midlifers, and ages into the engaged, powerful elders presiding over the next Awakening.
- An Artist generation (example: Silent, born 1925-42, or Homelanders, often called Gen Z by today's media, born 2006?-2029?) grows up as overprotected children during a Crisis, comes of age as the sensitive young adults of a post-Crisis world, breaks free as indecisive midlife leaders during an Awakening, and ages into empathic post-Awakening elders.
Each turning is therefore associated with a similar constellation of generations in each phase of life. (In an Unraveling, for example, the Artist is always entering elderhood and the Nomad is always coming of age into adulthood.) During each turning, most people pay special attention to the new generation coming of age- because they sense that this youthful archetype, alive to the future's potential, may prefigure the emerging mood of the new turning.
They're right. This rising generation does prefigure the emerging mood. Yet like the mood of the turning, the personality of the rising generation always catches most people by surprise.
By the time of the 1945 VE and VJ Day parades, at the start of the First Turning or High, Americans had grown accustomed to massive ranks of organized youth mobilizing to vote for the New Deal, build dams and harbors, and conquer half the world. No one expected a new generation of polite cautionaries who preferred to "work within the system" rather than change it. But with the Silent Generation, that's what they got.
When Martin Luther King, Jr., led his march on Washington, DC, at the start of the Awakening, Americans had grown accustomed to well-socialized youth who listened to doo-wop music, showed up for draft calls, and worked earnestly yet peaceably for causes like civil rights. No one expected a new generation of rule-breakers who preferred to act out their passions, cripple "the Establishment and reinvent the culture. But with the Boom Generation, that's what they got.
A year after The Big Chill appeared, when Apple was loudly proclaiming that "1984 won't be like 1984, Americans at the start of the Unraveling had grown accustomed to moralizing youth who busily quested after deeper values and a meaningful inner life. No one expected a new generation of hardscrabble free agents who scorned yuppie pretention and hungered after the material bottom line. But with Generation X, that's what they got.
Flash forward twenty years to the peak year of the Survivor TV series, near the onset of the Great Recession and the beginning of the Millennial Crisis. Americans by now had grown accustomed to edgy and self-reliant youth who enjoyed taking personal risks and sorting themselves into winners and losers. No one expected a new generation of normcore team players aspiring to build security, connection, and community. But with the Millennial Generation, that's what they got-or, perhaps we should say, are getting.
As they approached the close of each of these prior Third Turning eras, Americans celebrated a self-seeking ethos of laissez-faire "individ-ualism" (a word first popularized in the 1840s), yet also fretted over social fragmentation, distrust of authority, and economic and technological change that seemed to be accelerating beyond society's ability to control it.
During each of these eras, Americans had recently triumphed over a long-standing global threat - Imperial Germany, Imperial New Spain (alias Mexico), or Imperial New France. Yet these victories came to be associated with a worn-out definition of national direction--and, per-versely, stripped people of what common civic purpose they had left.
Much like the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, early in our most recent Third Turning, they all unleashed a mood of foreboding.
During each of these eras, Americans felt well rooted in their personal values but newly hostile toward the corruption of civic life. Unifying institutions that had seemed secure for decades suddenly felt ephemeral. Those who had once trusted the nation with their lives were now retiring or passing away. Their children, now reaching midlife, were more interested in lecturing the nation than in leading it. And to the new crop of young adults, the nation hardly mattered. The whole res publica seemed to be unraveling.
During each of these previous Third Turnings, Americans felt like they were drifting toward a waterfall.
And, as it turned out, they were.
The 1760s were followed by the American Revolution, the 1850s by the Civil War, the 1920s by the Great Depression and World War II. All these Unraveling eras were followed by bone-jarring Crises so monumental that, by their end, American society emerged wholly transformed.
Every time, the change came with scant warning. As late as November 1773, October 1860, and October 1929, the American people had no idea how close the change was--nor, even while they were in it, how transformative it would be.
Over the next two decades or so, society convulsed. Initially, the people were dazed and demoralized. In time, they began to mobilize into partisan tribes. Ultimately, emergencies arose that required massive sacrifices from a citizenry who responded by putting community ahead of self. Leaders led, and people trusted them. As a new social contract was created, people overcame challenges once thought insurmountable-and used the Crisis to elevate themselves and their nation to a higher plane of civilization. In the 1790s, they created the world's first large democratic republic. In the late 1860s, decimated but reassembled, they forged a more unified nation that extended new guarantees of liberty and equality. In the late 1940s, they constructed the most Promethean superpower ever seen.
The Fourth Turning is history's great discontinuity. It ends one epoch and begins another.
Yet as we reflect today on America's entry into yet another Fourth
Turning era, we must remember this: The swiftness and permanence of the mood shift is only appreciated in retrospect-never in prospect. The dramatic narrative arc that seems so unmistakable afterward in view of its consequences was not at all obvious to Americans at the time.
During the American Revolution Crisis, General George Washington early on believed his army would likely be crushed. Even as late as the mid-1780s, nearly all the founders lamented the incapacity of their feeble confederation to govern a vast, scattered, and willful citizenry.
During the Civil War Crisis, despite the rapid crescendo of deaths in major battles that each side hoped would be decisive, no clear victor emerged. Shortly before his 1864 re-election, President Abraham Lincoln (along with many of his advisors) predicted that he would likely "be beaten badly" at the polls and that his accomplishments would thereafter be dismantled by his opponents.
Every Fourth Turning unleashes social forces that push the nation, before the era is over, into a great national challenge: a single urgent test or threat that will draw all other problems into it and require the extraordinary mobilization of most Americans. We don't yet know what this challenge is. Historically, it has nearly always been connected to the outcome of a major war either between America and foreign powers, or between different groups within America, or both.
War may not be inevitable. Yet even if it is not, the very survival of the nation will feel at stake. The challenge will require a degree of public engagement and sacrifice that few Americans today have experienced earlier in their lives. Remnants of the old social and policy order will dis-integrate. And by the time the challenge is resolved, America will acquire a new collective identity with a new understanding of income, class, race, nation, and empire. For the rising generation of Millennials, the bonds of civic membership will strengthen, offering more to each citizen yet also requiring more from each citizen.
In any case, sometime before the mid-2030s, America will pass through a great gate in history, commensurate with the American Revo-lution, the Civil War, and the twin emergencies of the Great Depression and World War II.
The risk of catastrophe will be high. The nation could erupt into insurrection or civil conflict, crack up geographically, or succumb to authoritarian rule. If there is a war, it is likely to be one of maximum risk and effort-in other words, a total war precisely because so much will seem to rest on the outcome.
"There is a mysterious cycle in human events,' President Franklin Roosevelt observed in the depths of the Great Depression. "To some generations much is given. Of other generations much is expected. This generation has a rendezvous with destiny."
This cycle of human events remains mysterious. But we need not stumble across it in total surprise or remain ignorant of why it arose, what drives it, how it behaves, or where it's going. Indeed, we must not.
For today's generations have their own rendezvous with destiny.
GroupLands